ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 18th February
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, February 18. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better (https://surveys.hotjar.com/58578fe2-a49e-4faf-9594-3a926a54cd03).
New updates
LYL 1H26 results highlights
[11:11 am] Lycopodium delivered a softer first half with profit and revenue missing expectations, driven by weaker operating momentum. However, resilient margins and a higher interim dividend partly offset the negative signal from a cut to FY26 profit guidance. Key numbers:
- Revenue up 4.2% to $174.5m vs $183.6m ests (5.0% miss).
- EBITDA $29.6m vs $29.3m ests (1.0% beat).
- EBITDA margin 17.0% vs 16.0% implied ests (about 1.0ppt better).
- NPAT down 27.7% to $18.3m vs $19.4m ests (5.7% miss).
- Interim dividend 22c vs 10c pcp (up 120%), record 24 March, payable 2 April.
- EPS 45.9c vs 63.5c pcp (down 27.7%).
- FY26 NPAT guidance cut to $37-41 million vs. prior guidance of $40-44 million and ests of $43 million. This represents a 9.3% miss at the midpoint. LYL shares are down 9% at $13.47 in morning trading. By Warren Masilamony | Company page: (LYL (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/lyl?src=search-all) )
BHP attracting target price upgrades
[10:51 am] BHP rallied 4.7% to fresh all-time highs on Tuesday after its first-half result slightly beat earnings expectations, along with a stronger-than-expected interim dividend. The share price reaction was supported by a strong operational outcome, with copper contributing the largest share of overall earnings for the first time on record (51% of EBITDA). Here's what analysts are thinking:
* JPMorgan maintained Overweight, raised target from $56 to $58. Monetisation of the silver stream and strong copper performance underpin confidence in the medium term, with iron ore cost guidance offering upside despite softer coal costs.
* RBC Capital Markets maintained Sector Perform, raised target from $51 to $55. The result reinforced the accelerating pivot to copper, with capital recycling and staged Vicuña development reducing risk and WAIO free cash flow supporting growth.
* UBS maintained Neutral, raised target from $47 to $52. A stronger-than-expected dividend highlighted balance sheet capacity and growing copper exposure, though higher-than-expected South Australia capex tempers enthusiasm.
Brokers bullish on Seek
[10:47 am] Analysts continue to see upside in Seek, despite ongoing job ad volume and yield volatility and AI risks. The company's 1H26 result on Tuesday was broadly in-line with expectations, with management tightening the FY26 guidance towards the top end of prior ranges. The stock finished 3.3% lower, potentially off the back of its $356 million Zhaopin write down and risks to volumes heading into the second half.
* Morgans upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, target unchanged at $27.50. The result met expectations with strong yield and emerging operating leverage post investment cycle, though AI disruption remains the key unresolved risk.
* Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target from $32.50 to $28.00. Record yield growth and durable pricing power highlight a strong ANZ competitive position, with AI representing both a structural opportunity and a valuation risk.
Analysts mixed on Baby Bunting
[10:43 am] Baby Bunting shares rallied 8.6% on Tuesday after its 1H26 was broadly in-line with its guidance and market expectations. Management narrowed the full-year guidance (slight upgrade at the midpoint). Optimism was slightly offset by a large increase in capex to support the company's ongoing store roll out and refurbishment program.
* RBC Capital Markets maintained Sector Perform, target unchanged at $2.60. Strong sales and margin delivery alongside disciplined refurbishment execution were noted, though higher capital intensity and limited near-term catalysts temper upside.
* Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, target unchanged at $3.60. Refurbishments are generating attractive long-term returns, with the elevated investment phase and dividend pause viewed as prudent and balance sheet risk manageable.
* Morgans maintained Hold, lowered target from $2.70 to $2.60. Margin expansion from pricing discipline and a growing refurb fleet underpin the medium-term outlook, but operating leverage is still emerging and sector headwinds constrain valuation.
Analysts' take on Reliance Worldwide H1 results
[10:39 am] RWC’s H1 result on Tuesday missed expectations, and shares opened 2.2% lower before sliding down 9.1% at $3.50 by session close. Some analysts' takeaway:
* JPMorgan maintained Neutral, lowered target from $4.10 to $3.75 (down 8.5%). They flagged still soft end markets and tariff impacts stretching into FY27.
* E&P Financial Group maintained Positive, lowered target from $5.40 to $4.90 (down 9.3%). They pinned the miss on APAC and EMEA.
RWC is down 1.7% at $3.44 in morning trade. By Warren Masilamony | Company page: (RWC (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/rwc?src=search-all) )
Top ASX 200 gainers and losers
[10:27 am] TechnologyOne rallying off the back of a FY26 guidance upgrade, Netwealth's result broadly beat expectations and Nickel Industries received a sizeable increase to its nickel production quota. Meanwhile, Capstone tumbles on a downbeat production guidance and gold stocks are broadly lower as bullion prices slipped overnight.
Ticker
Company
% Chg
Price
TNE
Technology One
8.89%
$23.65
NWL
Netwealth Group
8.51%
$24.22
NIC
Nickel Industries
6.77%
$1.03
SGM
Sims
5.73%
$21.59
MPL
Medibank Private
5.53%
$4.77
ZIP
Zip Co
5.36%
$2.75
TLC
Lottery Corporation
5.23%
$5.43
ASB
Austal
5.22%
$6.15
DXS
Dexus
4.91%
$6.62
HUB
Hub24
4.80%
$85.76
Ticker
Company
% Chg
Price
CSC
Capstone Copper Corp
-16.44%
$13.06
ALK
Alkane Resources
-4.76%
$1.70
FBU
Fletcher Building
-4.15%
$2.89
WGX
Westgold Resources
-3.53%
$6.83
OBM
Ora Banda Mining
-3.52%
$1.24
ZIM
Zimplats
-3.10%
$18.77
JDO
Judo Capital
-2.90%
$1.84
GQG
GQG Partners
-2.84%
$1.71
PDI
Predictive Discovery
-2.58%
$0.87
PRU
Perseus Mining
-2.58%
$5.48
Nickel Industries secures a major quota uplift
[10:21 am] The 59% increase in the 2026 RKAB quota removes a key supply constraint and positions the mine to fully service both its RKEF and the ramping ENC HPAL operations this year.
* Hengjaya Mine 2026 RKAB quota increased to 14.3m wmt from 9.0m wmt, a 59% uplift.
* Two further windows to apply for additional quota increases are available mid and end of year, with the company intending to pursue both as ENC commissions and ramps up.
Two weeks ago, the Indonesian government ordered the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, to significantly reduce production. The mine received a production quote of 12 million tonnes for 2026, down 71% from 42 million in 2025. So pretty interesting to see NIC receive a higher quota.
NIC shares opened 2.3% higher, now up 6.7%. Company page: Nickel Industries (NIC (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/nic) )
Dexus delivers in-line half, launches buyback
[10:14 am] Results came in largely as expected with valuation tailwinds lifting statutory profit, while management moves to close the gap between market price and asset value via a buyback. Dexus shares are up 5.2% in early trade.
* AFFO of 23.6 cents per security.
* Revenue down 17% to $360m vs. $434.7m year-ago.
* Statutory NPAT of $348.5m vs. $10.3m year-ago, driven by fair valuation gains this half versus losses in the prior period.
* 1H26 DPS of 19.3 cents confirmed.
* NTA per security rose 1.6% to $8.95, with overall property portfolio valuations up 1.0% (office +0.7%, industrial +1.6%), marking the second consecutive half of positive revaluations.
Other metrics of interest:
* Office leasing volumes of 95,300 sqm nearly doubled year-on-year, with Waterfront Brisbane now 71% pre-leased; industrial like-for-like income growth of 8.7% driven by circa 33% releasing spreads.
* Launched on-market buyback of up to 10% of securities , with management citing a sustained disconnect between market valuation and underlying asset value.
* Gearing remains comfortable at 33.9% within the 30-40% target range.
FY26 guidance reaffirmed at 44.5-45.5 cents per security, in-line with consensus. Company page: Dexus (DXS (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/dxs) )
TechnologyOne lifts FY26 guidance
[9:54 am] A confident guidance upgrade at the AGM signals TechnologyOne is firing above its historical growth levels, with AI product launches and SaaS driving higher earnings expectations.
* FY26 PBT growth guidance upgraded to 18-20% from 13-17% prior, with ARR growth guided to 16-18%.
* Management targeting the top end of both ranges.
* PBT growth range has moved from 10-15% in prior years, to 12-16% in FY24, 13-17% in FY25, and now 18-20% in FY26.
* CEO Ed Chung flagged strong customer pipeline momentum across Australia, New Zealand and the UK as the basis for the upgrade, noting "we don't guide up unless we can see it in the numbers".
TNE shares have tumbled 19% YTD and down 42% in the last six months to the lowest since August 2024. Company page: TechnologyOne (TNE (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/tne) )
Hansen delivers solid half, cash flow sharply higher
[9:50 am] Strong operating leverage and cost discipline drove outsized earnings and cash flow growth, with revenue slightly soft on estimates but the underlying business momentum firmly intact.
* Revenue up 7.3% to $191.0m vs. ests of $199.6m (4% miss),
* Underlying EBITDA up 46.1% to $55.7m vs. ests of $57.5m (3% miss)
* EBITDA margin tracking towards the ~30% FY26 target.
* Underlying NPATA up 142.3% to $30.5m vs. ests of $27.5m (11% beat)
* Net cash from operating activities up 417.7% to $53.6m reflecting strong operating leverage and cost control.
* Interim dividend of 5.0 cps.
* Digitalk acquisition expected to contribute to revenue acceleration in 2H26.
* Outlook: On track for ~30% underlying EBITDA margin in FY26 (UBS ests at 31.8%), medium-term targets of 5-7% organic revenue growth.
Company page: Hansen Technologies (HSN (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/hsn) )
The Lottery Corp navigates historic jackpot low
[9:44 am] The Lottery Corporation posted resilient 1H26 results despite the most unfavourable jackpot environment since its 2022 demerger, with low Powerball and Oz Lotto outcomes dragging an estimated $400 million from turnover.
* Revenue up 2% to $1.82bn vs. ests of $1.79bn (1% beat)
* EBITDA down 0.7% to $367m vs. ests of $365.3m (in line)
* NPAT down 1.4% to $173.3m vs. ests of $171.0m (1% beat)
* Dividend of 8.0 cps vs. ests of 7.9 cps (1% beat)
* Digital share of Lotteries turnover grew 80 bps to 41.2% despite the weak jackpot backdrop.
* Operational highlights: Saturday Lotto game change delivering well with price retention of 103%. Powerball subscription price increase implemented November 2025. Set for Life refresh flagged for September 2026.
* Leverage at 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA, at the lower end of the 3.0-4.0x target range.
Company page: The Lottery Corporation (TLC (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/tlc) ) | By Stephanie Gardner
SGH and Steel Dynamics go best and final on BlueScope
[9:42 am] A revised and final cash offer values BlueScope at $15 billion, representing a substantial premium to all key undisturbed trading metrics and would see SGH retain the Australian operations while Steel Dynamics takes North America.
* Revised offer price of $32.35 per share in cash, equivalent to $34.00 per share before deductions of $1.65 (comprising BSL's $1.00 unfranked special dividend and $0.65 unfranked interim dividend).
* Declared best and final in the absence of a superior competing proposal, representing a 14% increase on the adjusted initial proposal price of $28.35.
* Represents a 47% premium to BSL's adjusted closing price at initial proposal.
* Structure has SGH retaining BSL's Australia and Rest of World operations, with North American operations on-sold to Steel Dynamics post-close, aligning with both parties' stated strategic and capital allocation frameworks.
Company page: BlueScope Steel (BSL (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/bsl) )
SHAPE firing on all cylinders
[9:39 am] A standout half from SHAPE with revenue, margins and backlog all accelerating, as the non-office pivot gains serious traction and Modular scales rapidly. No consensus numbers as this thinly traded ~$500 million market cap company doesn't receive much institutional coverage. Though the stock has been trending strong since August 2023.
* Revenue up 16% to $553.3m
* EBITDA up 45% to $21.4m
* Gross margin improving to 9.8% from 9.1%
* NPAT up 49% to $14.0m
* Interim dividend up 40% to 14.0 cps
* Backlog up 33% to $686.1m, with an identified pipeline of ~$3.8bn providing strong H2 visibility.
* Non-office project wins up 120%, with education up 170% to $153.5m and industrial and data centre wins of $137.4m compared to just $7.0m in pcp.
* Arden Group acquisition (completed December) adds national retail fitout and facilities maintenance capabilities in higher-margin fuel and convenience sectors, expanding addressable market and creating recurring revenue streams.
* Outlook commentary: well-positioned for H2 with backlog and pipeline
