The world is on the brink of a nuclear arms race, and the blame falls squarely on the expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia. This pivotal agreement, which came into force in 2011, set limits on both countries' nuclear arsenals, ensuring a delicate balance of power. But with its expiration, the two nuclear superpowers are now free to expand their arsenals without restraint, raising concerns about the potential for a devastating conflict. 'The worst-case scenario is that it spirals out of control, and an unforeseen incident could trigger a rapid escalation to a nuclear conflict,' warns Thomas Countryman, a former US official. 'We do not benefit from a wasteful, inefficient arms race. We do not benefit from a lack of predictability and transparency in knowing what the Russian nuclear program is up to,' adds Paul Dean, a former assistant secretary of state. 'If we don’t show nuclear resolve, our allies will wonder if the US will come to their aid, and they may be tempted to develop their own nuclear programs.'
The treaty's expiration has sparked a debate about the future of arms control. While some experts argue that the limitations of the New START treaty were outdated and unnecessarily constrained the US, especially with China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, others believe that adhering to the limits is in the US interest. 'China is a near-peer superpower or will be a nuclear superpower, and so now we need a strategy to deter nuclear war with Russia and China, with China’s much larger force,' says Matthew Kroenig, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. 'U.S. strategy should no longer treat China’s nuclear forces as a ‘lesser included’ threat.'
The Trump administration's response to the treaty's expiration is yet to be determined. While some experts suggest that the US may upload more nuclear warheads, others believe that a one-year extension of the limits could be an 'easy' diplomatic win for Trump. 'We’ve got work to do, to plan and prepare,' says Rose Gottemoeller, who served as chief US negotiator for New START. 'We know they have that industrial capacity available, and we do not have it.'
The future of arms control hangs in the balance, and the world watches with bated breath. Will the US and Russia continue to adhere to the caps outlined in the treaty? Or will they embark on a new arms race, with potentially devastating consequences? The answer lies in the hands of those in power, and the world awaits their decision with a sense of urgency and trepidation.
