A White Christmas: Myth or Reality?
The dream of a snowy Christmas has been shattered for many, as a significant weather pattern shift looms in the second half of December. While the northern states have been enjoying a chilly and snowy start to the month, a major change is about to unfold.
A white Christmas, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, occurs when there's at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th. And this year, the chances of that happening are about to take a dramatic turn.
The Arctic Blast and Its Impact
For weeks, Arctic air has been making frequent appearances across the Midwest, Northeast, and even the South, with the coldest blast occurring just recently. This has resulted in winter storms covering a large portion of the northern states with a blanket of snow.
But here's where it gets controversial: How much of this snow will actually stick around for Christmas Day? A significant jet stream pattern shift is promising a potential meltdown.
The Jet Stream's Role
The cold start to December has been influenced by a wavy jet stream, oriented north to south, which has been driving Arctic air into the central and eastern states from Canada. This persistent pattern is linked to the disruption of the polar vortex at the end of November.
However, the jet stream is about to undergo a transformation. It's expected to smooth out and take a more level path from west to east across the country. When this happens, it acts as a barrier, preventing long-lasting cold air from moving too far south from Canada.
Warmer Temperatures Ahead
According to NOAA, a large area of the US is predicted to experience warmer-than-average temperatures for the rest of December. Only the far northern tier is expected to remain at or just below normal for this time of year.
As a result, some of the snow on the ground in the Midwest and Northeast will melt due to the milder temperatures. Rainfall will also contribute to this, especially from a storm system that will bring downpours as far north as Michigan and Maine later this week.
Where to Find Snow on Christmas
Forecast models indicate that the snow on Christmas morning will likely be concentrated in areas that typically have the best chances of a white Christmas: the Mountain West, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, northern New England, and the Great Lakes snow belts.
But here's the catch: it's still too early to predict if any storm systems next week might come to the rescue and bring new snowfall. If you're still holding out hope for a white Christmas, add that to your wish list for Santa! Right now, the odds are not in your favor.
The Odds of a White Christmas
History tells us that the chances of a white Christmas are less than 50% for most of the Lower 48. If you're seeking a nearly guaranteed white Christmas, you'll need to head to a ski resort in the West or northern New England, or cities like Marquette, Michigan, and Duluth, Minnesota. These locations have odds of 90% or higher, based on data from 1991 to 2020.
Even in major cities like Minneapolis-St. Paul, the chances are high at 74%. However, in places like Chicago and New York, the odds drop significantly to 34% and 13%, respectively. Even Denver and Salt Lake City have less than a 50% chance.
And in the South, the likelihood is even lower, although there have been rare instances of a snowy Christmas, such as the 2004 snowstorm in South Texas that reached the Gulf Coast, creating a unique Christmas scene with palm trees covered in snow.
So, will you be dreaming of a white Christmas this year? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!
